Forecasting on Mountain Villa is a personal hobby: a record of what I expect, why I expect it, and what I learn when reality answers. Predictions may concern politics, economics or anything else that interests me. They are my opinions and experiments, not promises.
Personal responsibility and disclaimer
This blog is published for personal interest and entertainment. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal, medical or other professional advice, a recommendation to act, or a guarantee of any outcome. Predictions and assessments may be mistaken, incomplete or out of date. Do your own research and make your own decisions; do not rely on this blog as the basis for decisions involving money, health, safety or legal obligations.
To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, I accept no liability for loss, damage or consequences arising from reliance on this blog or its predictions. No advisory relationship is created by reading it. Nothing in this notice excludes or limits liability that cannot lawfully be excluded or limited.
How predictions work
A post can contain several predictions, each with its own deadline and assessment. A deadline passing automatically marks an open prediction as awaiting review, never as correct or incorrect. A later review date can allow time for evidence to appear. Outcome classes and explanations are my own assessments; they are not independently audited. Dated changes remain in the prediction history.
Statuses and outcome classes
| Status | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Open | A forecast whose deadline has not passed. |
| Waiting for evidence | The outcome deadline has passed, but the planned review date is still ahead. |
| Awaiting review | The deadline or review date has passed and no outcome class has been assigned. |
| A: Bullseye | Exceptionally accurate on a difficult prediction. |
| B: Correct | The prediction held up. |
| C: Still unresolved | More time or clarification is needed; the assessment can be revisited. |
| D: Right by accident | The outcome was right, but the reasoning did not earn it. |
| E: Disrupted by events | The outcome was wrong after an unforeseen development. This class is excluded from the accuracy score. |
| F: Wrong | The prediction failed. |
| G: Dead wrong | The prediction failed comprehensively, with potentially serious consequences. |
| H: What was I thinking? | The prediction failed through a mistake I now consider avoidable. |
| X: Beyond assessment | The situation cannot currently be assessed meaningfully; it can be revisited. |
| Withdrawn | I have withdrawn the prediction. The record remains visible. |
How the score works
Accuracy = right predictions divided by right plus wrong predictions. A, B and D count as right; F, G and H count as wrong. Every other status is excluded, including E. Each prediction has equal weight; confidence percentages do not affect the score. This is outcome accuracy, not a measure of the quality of my reasoning.
This year means predictions assessed during the current calendar year, using the site timezone and the date their current class was assigned. All history includes all currently public predictions with a scored class. Private, password-protected, draft and archived posts are excluded from every public report. Changing an assessment or a post’s visibility can therefore change the figures.